hazard

an obstacle on a golf course

an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another

bad luck caused his downfall

we ran into each other by pure chance

a source of danger; a possibility of incurring loss or misfortune

drinking alcohol is a health hazard

put forward, of a guess, in spite of possible refutation

I am guessing that the price of real estate will rise again

I cannot pretend to say that you are wrong

take a risk in the hope of a favorable outcome

When you buy these stocks you are gambling

put at risk

I will stake my good reputation for this